Practical Monte Carlo Simulation with Excel Part 1
Basics and Standard Procedures
Category: Business & Politics
» Process Management
| Work: Fachbuch
, Frequency Tables
, Cumulative Frequency
, Pareto Charts
, Descriptive Statistics
, Probability Distributions
, Uniform Distribution
, Discrete Random Variables
, Sensitivity Analysis
, Analysis Toolpack
, Simple Linear Regression.
Monte Carlo Simulation with Excel. Part 1 of 2: basics + standard procedures.
Monte Carlo Simulation is a numeric technique that allows the analyst to simulate a specific formulation by running the computation a large number of times (typically in the thousands). In each model, there will be several input variables. Each input variable will be modeled to behave in a way that represents reality. This could be a uniform distribution, a normal distribution, a Binomial or a Weibull distribution. For each run, the model will use a single random sample from these distributions and produce one or more outputs. After running the model a large number of times, the resulting (large number of) outputs can be analyzed statistically. This will give a more serious and significant result than the traditional case where the model is fixed with a single fixed estimate for each input variable.
The market has a fair number of stand alone applications as well as add on’s to Microsoft Excel. However, Excel has all the functions needed for Monte Carlo Simulation. What is needed are modeling procedures, techniques and standard formulations. Initially, the author had written a single eBook which grew out of proportion as more and more models were developed to address different applications, some never having used Monte Carlo Simulation before. The author saw as more practical to break the eBook into two parts.
Part 1 addresses the basics of modeling, presents various techniques and methods that will be used in part 2 and clarifies a variety of statistical concepts and how they are handled in Microsoft Excel.
Part 2 concentrates on a variety of applications. It also addresses a large number of distributions and shows when and how they can be used in Monte Carlo Simulation models.
The eBooks result in a variety of modeling techniques always using native Excel functions and facilities. No programming is required although in one single case, an embedded VBA module is included to address two level runs. No VBA competence is required.
Finally, the two eBooks come with 21 and 54 workouts, respectively, all of them presented step-by-step with supporting images. All the workouts are solved and are available for download from the author’s website.
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About the Author
Akram Najjar is an engineer currently working as a Business Technology Consultant. He completed a B. Sc. in physics and mathematics at the American University of Beirut, Lebanon (1966). He took another B. Sc. in Electrical and Electronic Engineering from the University of Hertfordshire in England (1969).
Akram spent the first part of his career managing software development companies in Lebanon and the Arabian Gulf. By 1995, he concentrated on contractual work: IT Consulting, Business Process Reengineering, Project Management, Process Mapping, Data Analysis, Frameworks for Software Development and Technical Writing. He worked with various international organizations such as the World Bank, UNDP and the EU. In parallel with his consulting work, Akram focused on management training developing and conducting workshops for the above subjects. This and other books on his site are based on the experience acquired in these workshops.
The three types of books Akram writes (fiction, technical and puzzles) can be traced back to one incident when he was 12. His teacher introduced him to “Scientific American”. His name was David W. Miller. Mr. Miller’s whereabouts are not known today. But he is to be thanked and thanked again. The articles were above Akram’s head but his love for astronomy made the magazine fascinating. That eventually led him to study Physics and Mathematics. Coincidentally, the Greek Myths that were used to name the constellations got him interested in Literature, a love that led him to write fiction at a later date.
Akram also got hooked on the Mathematical Games column by Martin Gardner which was the reason Akram was set firmly in Puzzledom. Later on, it was second nature to him to work in software as a career. Software is an abstract practice that is full of puzzles whether you are designing, programming or debugging.
His eBooks are presented on two website. The www.marginalbooks.com site covers technical and literary books. All puzzles and games are presented on www.thehiddenpaw.com. XinXii is the only distributor of Akram's books. They have kindly distributed the books to various online retaliers.
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